ANALYSIS OF UNEMPLOYMENT TRENDS AND THEIR IMPACT ON REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT

Abstract

This study aims to analyze and project the development of the Open Unemployment Rate (OUR) and its impact on regional development in Serang Regency. Unemployment is a strategic indicator affecting economic growth, social welfare, and regional stability. This research employs a mixed-method approach combining quantitative analysis using descriptive statistics and Holt’s Linear Exponential Smoothing for time-series forecasting (2010–2024), along with literature enrichment for in-depth analysis. The results indicate that the Open Unemployment Rate in Serang Regency declined from 12.22% in 2020 to 9.18% in 2024. The projection for 2025–2030 suggests a continued downward trend, reaching 7.08% by 2030. The reduction in unemployment positively contributes to regional development through increased economic growth, labor productivity, purchasing power, and contributions to Gross Regional Domestic Product and local revenue. Therefore, consistent and adaptive unemployment control policies are essential to promote inclusive and sustainable regional development.